Real-life consists of deception, small deception tactics, and asking yourself what the other person I would think of doing.
The decisions you make in your life - in business, savings and spending, health and lifestyle choices, raising your children, and relationships - are "real games".
Life is more like poker. You can make the smartest and most accurate decision while still blasting it in the face.
It is the prelude to every great decision.
You are betting on all future versions of yourself that you would not choose.
(1) You hear something.
(2) She thinks about and examines the matter, and determines whether it is true or false.
(3) Only after that do you form your faith.
However, it turns out that you in fact form abstract beliefs this way:
(1) You hear something
(2) You think it is true
(3) Only sometimes, at a later time, if you have the time or desire, do you think about it and examine it, to determine whether it is, in fact, right or wrong.
How beliefs are formed are shaped by an evolutionary push toward competence rather than accuracy.
Our ancestors could form new beliefs only from what they lived through directly.
It is reasonable to assume that our senses do not lie.
We didn't develop a high degree of suspicion when our beliefs were about things we directly lived through, especially when our lives were at stake.
The system that we already had was:
(1) Try it out
(2) It's true
(3) Perhaps, and seldom do we ask about it later.
Our older system is still responsible.
(A) Make a massive shift in your mind from 100% wrong to 100% wrong
(B) Ignoring or denigrating new information.
It's a pity to be wrong, so I chose B.
Then you realize that there is always some degree of uncertainty, that you are generally less confident than you thought, and that what you think is not 100% or 0% accurate.
"I am 60% sure Citizen Kane will win the best picture" reflects that your knowledge is incomplete.
The less you know about a topic or the more fortunate you are, the greater your scope.
I create openness and an objective attitude.
It doesn't feel nearly as bad as, "I thought I was right but now I'm wrong."
By saying, "I'm 80%" and thus communicating with you is unsure, you open the door for others to tell you what they know. They know that they can contribute without needing to confront you by saying or suggesting, "You are wrong."
The expression of uncertainty indicates to the listeners that this needs more scrutiny.
The future you bet on unfolds as a series of outcomes.
If you determine that your decisions led to the outcome, you can feed the data you get by following those decisions again into the building and updating beliefs and creating a learning loop.
The challenge is that anyone outcome can occur for multiple reasons.
We will not reflect bad results like all luck or good like all skills.
Encourage diversity of perspectives.
Betting is a form of accountability for accuracy.
Why my belief may not be correct?
What other evidence may there be an effect on my faith?
Are there similar fields that you can look to gauge whether beliefs similar to mine are true?
What sources of information have I missed or reduced by way of arriving at my belief?
What reasons would someone else hold a different belief, what was their support, and why might he be right in place of me?
What are your other perspectives on why things are turning the way they did?
It's an admission that everything you think about the world is not true.
If regret occurred before the decision was made rather than after, the experience of regret may prompt you to make a choice that is likely to lead to a bad outcome.
What are the consequences of each of my choices in ten minutes? In ten months? Ten years later?
How would I feel today if I had made that decision ten minutes earlier? Ten months ago? Ten years ago?
Strive for a long and sustained upward trend in your happiness reserves.
Remembering the future is the best way to plan for it.
Imagine obstacles to reaching your goals.
Start an initial dissection by imagining why you failed to reach your goal.
Then imagine why. All of these reasons why you may not achieve your goal help you anticipate potential obstacles and improve your likelihood of success.
When you see how much negative space really exists, you are shrinking the positive space to one that more accurately reflects reality and less of your naturally optimistic nature.
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